Schedule reliability: planning around the deviation instead of arguing about it
The brief
The operator's berth planning team and its largest forwarding customer had spent a year disagreeing about arrival punctuality. Both had data. The data did not match, because one side measured against the published schedule and the other against the berth window agreed the previous evening.
What we found
Across a 12-week sample, 61% of calls arrived inside the agreed berth window. The mean deviation was 94 minutes, but the distribution was the point: two-thirds of the lateness came from one in eight calls. Those calls were predictable by 18:00 the previous day in almost every case, and nobody was publishing that prediction to the gate or the yard.
What changed
We defined one shared arrival measure — forecast ETA against the agreed berth window, in minutes, with a single owner — and built the reporting view that made it visible to berth planning, the yard, the gate team and the customer at the same time. The gate slot release was then moved to follow the forecast rather than the published schedule.
Measured result
Window adherence rose from 61% to 78% over two quarters, mostly because the forecast was acted on rather than because ships got faster. Truck turnaround time on the affected services fell by an average of 14 minutes. Demurrage disputes with that customer fell from eleven in a quarter to two.
Caveat
The last quarter of the measurement period had roughly 6% lower volume than the first. We estimate that accounts for two to three points of the adherence improvement, and said so in the report.
„The argument stopped the week we agreed which clock we were reading.“